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Investors willing to look beyond Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) will find an additional 13 emerging economies that also have the potential to grow significantly faster than the established Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This is the conclusion of a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report published 4 March.
While China will overtake the US to become the largest economy in 2025, "The fastest mover could be Vietnam, with a potential growth rate of almost 10 percent per annum in real dollar terms that could push it up to around 70 percent of the size of the UK economy by 2050," says John Hawksworth, Head of Macroeconomics, PwC.
While the precise role of real estate markets in driving these economies is unclear, there has been steadily increased interest in real estate in markets such as China and Vietnam from global capital. According to Steve Williams, consultant to Real Capital Analytics, in a 2007 review of global real estate, " Thirteen cities in China posted more than US$1 bil in commercial property sales." Interest in Vietnam is also surging, with a barrage of investment conferences targeting the country scheduled for 2008.
According to Hawksworth, the long-run growth potential in emerging economies is not driven primarily by real estate investment but rather by long-term demographic trends, rising average education levels, technological catch-up and long-term progress on structural reforms. "This growth in income levels will also support rises in real estate values, but there will always be significant volatility around this long-run upward trend," he says.
Brazil, Russia, India and China are the largest economies within the E7 (a term used for the major emerging economies), the other members of the group are Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. Of the 13 additional economies earmarked for future growth, six are in Asia (Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Malaysia and Thailand.) RFP
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